Can you beat a higher-rated player? Win probability calculator
Type two ratings and see how often each player wins, from real Lichess games, not just the Elo formula.
You win about 1 in 3 games.
Win
about 1 in 3 games
30%
Draw
about 1 in 30 games
4%
Lose
about 7 in 10 games
66%
Your score is 32%, counting a draw as half a win. The Elo formula predicts a score of 24%.
From 5,067 Lichess blitz games: players rated 1500 to 1599, opponents 175 to 225 points higher.
Chances to beat a higher-rated player
| Opponent | Bullet | Blitz | Rapid | Classical |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 higher | 45% | 44% | 44% | 42% |
| 100 higher | 40% | 39% | 39% | 35% |
| 150 higher | 34% | 34% | 33% | 31% |
| 200 higher | 29% | 29% | 27% | 26% |
| 300 higher | 22% | 21% | 20% | 15% |
| 400 higher | 17% | 15% | 13% | Too few |
| 500 higher | 14% | 11% | 9% | Too few |
How often the lower-rated player wins, every rating level and both colors together. Draws are not counted as wins.
How it works
These numbers come from 9,579,627 rated Lichess games played from 1 to 4 September 2026. Lichess publishes every rated game under a free license. Lichess open database
Each game counts twice, once from each player's side. Bots and abandoned games are left out. So are games with a provisional rating, a new or returning player whose rating still jumps a lot each game and says little yet.
Your answer comes from players within 100 points of your rating, facing a gap within 25 points of yours. When that holds fewer than 400 games, the window widens, and the gray line under the answer says what it counted.
The Elo formula gives only an expected score, wins plus half the draws. It can't say how often you'd draw. The calculator shows real results and the formula side by side.
Questions
What are my chances against someone 100 points higher?
In Lichess blitz, the player rated 100 points lower wins 39% of games and draws 5%. In rapid they win 39%, in bullet 40%.
What are my chances against someone 200 points higher?
In Lichess blitz, the player rated 200 points lower wins 29% of games and draws 5%. In rapid they win 27%, in bullet 29%.
Can you beat someone 400 points higher?
Yes, about 1 in 7 games. In Lichess blitz, the player rated 400 points lower wins 15% of the time.
Does the Elo formula match real results?
At a 200-point gap, the Elo formula gives the lower-rated player an expected score of 24%. In real Lichess blitz games they scored 31%, counting a draw as half a win. Lichess ratings come from Glicko-2, not Elo, so the formula is only a guide there.
How much does playing White help?
At equal ratings in Lichess blitz, White scores 52% and Black 48%, counting a draw as half a win.
How often do games end in a draw?
It depends on level. In Lichess blitz between equal players, 4% of games are drawn at 1200 and 7% at 2200.
Why Lichess games and not Chess.com?
Lichess publishes every rated game under a free license, so anyone can count the results. Chess.com does not publish its games in bulk. Ratings on the two sites are not on the same scale, so treat the answer as a guide if you play on Chess.com.
Coach Bjorn
Higher-rated or not, I'll review your latest game free. Type your username and pick your site.